It's that time again. The 94th annual Academy Award nominations will be announced next week, on Tuesday, Feb. 8, and considering how tumultuous a cinematic year 2021 turned out to be, it's safe to say there are going to be quite a few surprises.

Sure, Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog, Kenneth Branagh's Belfast, and Denis Villeneuve's Dune are going to come away with a large haul of nods in several key categories. But after that? If anyone tells you they know exactly how this is going to turn out, don't you believe them.

Why is that? Even more than last year's eclectic slate of nominees, with box office declines being what they are — Spider-Man: No Way Home and its almost two billion worldwide ticket sales notwithstanding — and the continued dominance of streaming services such as Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney+, and HBO Max, it's almost impossible to tell what floated an Academy member's boat and what they left stranded in drydock.

What did voters watch? What never made it to the top of their massive screener pile? Did critics groups and other precursor awards from the likes of SAG or the Producer's Guild sway things one way or another? How will the Academy's return to a set slate of ten Best Picture nominees shape things in the remaining categories? These and other questions are currently sitting at the forefront of my mind, and I'm curious to see how it turns out.

The number one thing I'm curious to learn is whether or not Academy members took the time to watch Ryûsuke Hamaguchi's Drive My Car, winner of the top prize from the New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and the National Society of Film Critics — not to mention also top honors from our hometown Seattle Film Critics Society. No motion picture that has conquered this particular critical trifecta has ever failed to land a Best Picture nomination.

Sadly, considering this is a three-hour meditative sojourn, part of me worries not enough voters will give Hamaguchi's triumphant modern masterwork the time of day. Hopefully, I'll be proven wrong, but I'm not holding my breath.

There are other giant question marks, not the least of which is whether or not Kristen Stewart will land a Best Actress nomination for her blisteringly raw turn as Princess Diana in director Pablo Larraín's Spencer, the most honored performance of 2021. Shockwaves went through the Oscar prognostication world, though, when Stewart was unexpectedly denied a SAG nomination. Will the same thing happen Tuesday morning when this category's nominees are finally revealed?

Things I'm personally hoping for even though I think they're all pretty big long shots: Nicolas Cage landing a Best Actor nod for Pig; The Matrix Resurrections showing up in Visual Effects and Sound; Penélope Cruz snagging a Best Actress slot for Parallel Mothers; Cyrano making the cut for Costumes, Makeup & Hair, plus Production Design; and Candyman scoring a surprise nomination for Best Original Score.

I'd also love to see Rebecca Hall's Passing make an appearance in a good half-dozen categories, but as Netflix has sadly left this film out in the cold to die, I'm not holding out much hope, save a lone Best Supporting Actress nom for Ruth Negga.

Here are my predictions for the top categories, as well as one personal pick that has no chance of happening. Check back next week to see how I did.

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