The first time I recall sitting down to watch the annual Academy Award telecast with an actual rooting interest in which film would take Best Picture was in 1982. I was absolutely positive Raiders of the Lost Ark was going to bring home the Oscar. How could it not? No motion picture was better the previous year. Not a single one.
Well, maybe Dragonslayer or Excalibur. But even at eight years old, I understood those films weren't for everyone. Sure, I loved them — a giant fire-breathing dragon in the former and King Arthur pulling the sword from the stone and engaging in a massive duel to the death with Mordred in the latter, how could I not? — but considering that almost no one I knew saw either, it didn't take a rocket scientist to grasp I was in (at the time) the minority.
But Raiders of the Lost Ark? Everyone, everywhere saw it, and everyone, everywhere loved it. It was going to win. I knew it. I could feel it in my bones.
While it did walk away with five Academy Awards that evening (Best Art Direction-Set Decoration, Best Visual Effects, Best Film Editing, Best Sound, and a special-achievement Oscar for innovation in sound effects editing), Raiders did not score the top prize. Imagine my shock when the winner was Chariots of Fire. What was that? British people running? At the Olympics? In 1924? Who the heck would watch that?
A lot of people, as it turns out, and 42 years later, I can't exactly say the voting members of the Motion Picture Academy of Arts and Sciences were wrong. Chariots of Fire is pretty dang great.
Anyhow, what I learned watching the Academy Awards that year is that, if you're really going to play the who's-gonna-win-what guessing game, personal preference and biases cannot factor in. It's all about Oscar tendencies. Who's due? What's the cultural vibe of that moment? Which films won prizes from critics groups and other awards bodies beforehand? What statement — if any — are voters wanting to make that year?
Questions like those inexorably lead to discussions and debates regarding Best Picture victors (along those in many of the acting categories) and how voters "made a mistake" by awarding them the Oscar. It's why some get so heated when they think about Dances with Wolves winning over Goodfellas, or Crash "taking the victory away" from Brokeback Mountain. It's why people go nuts over perceived "snubs" when the nominees are announced, even though a snub really isn't a thing. The list goes on and on, and the arguments are never-ending.
Personally, I find it all both amusing and tiresome. Unlike actual elections (like the one this November), there are no earthshaking real-world consequences to who wins what at the Academy Awards. I can be annoyed that Green Book beat Roma or that Around the World in 80 Days inexplicably toppled Giant as much as anyone. But those moments make semiunexpected victories by the likes of Parasite, Moonlight, The Apartment, and, yes, even Chariots of Fire all the more satisfying, and it's why diehards like me keep tuning in to the Oscar telecast every year like clockwork.
What does any of this have to do with this year's 96th annual Academy Awards? If all of the preseason bellwethers are to be believed, we're in for a sweep like The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Titanic, or Ben-Hur this year. Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer is almost assured to take home at least six Oscars out of its 13 nominations. Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, and even Best Actor appear to all be wrapped up for the epic biopic, and it wouldn't shock me if it more than doubles that overall-win count by the end of the evening.
If I'm being honest, there's truly only one category that's still up in the air, and that's Best Actress. Will Lily Gladstone make history for Killers of the Flower Moon? Can Emma Stone shag her second Academy Award for Poor Things? Or will Sandra Hüller emerge victorious at the last second, with the voting members of the Academy adjudicating the outcome in her favor for Anatomy of a Fall?
The following are my predictions. While eight-year-old me is still pulling for Raiders of the Lost Ark, I think it's safe to say not even a de-aged Indiana Jones could bullwhip that into reality (although composer John Williams received his 54th nomination for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny).
BEST PICTURE
Nominees:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Prediction: Oppenheimer
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees:
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Prediction: Nolan
BEST ACTOR
Nominees:
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Prediction: Murphy
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees:
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Prediction: Gladstone
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Prediction: Downey Jr.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees:
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Prediction: Randolph
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Prediction:
Anatomy of a Fall
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Prediction:
American Fiction
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees:
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Prediction:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees:
20 Days in Mariupol
Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
Prediction:
20 Days in Mariupol
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Nominees:
Io capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teacher's Lounge
The Zone of Interest
Prediction:
The Zone of Interest
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees:
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Prediction:
Oppenheimer
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees:
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Prediction:
Napoleon
BEST EDITING
Nominees:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Prediction:
Oppenheimer
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Nominees:
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Prediction:
Oppenheimer
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees:
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Prediction:
Oppenheimer
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees:
"It Never Went Away" (American Fiction)
"I'm Just Ken" (Barbie)
"What Was I Made For?" (Barbie)
"The Fire Inside" (Flamin' Hot)
"Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)" (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Prediction:
"What Was I Made For?" (Barbie)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees:
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Prediction:
Oppenheimer
BEST SOUND
Nominees:
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Prediction:
The Zone of Interest
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees:
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Prediction:
The Creator
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Nominees:
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over!
Prediction:
Our Uniform
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Nominees:
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nai Nai & Wài Pó
Prediction:
The ABCs of Book Banning
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Nominees:
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Prediction:
Red, White and Blue