New poll shows 57% support for restoring rights repealed in 2009

by Mike Andrew - SGN Staff Writer

A new poll released October 1 shows Maine's marriage equality referendum leading by 21 points.

Fifty-seven percent of respondents in the Critical Insights poll said they would vote Yes on the initiative to restore the equal marriage rights that were repealed in 2009. Only 36% said they would vote No.

The Critical Insights poll was conducted September 12-16 with live telephone interviews of 618 likely voters statewide. The poll has a stated 4-point margin of error.

Not surprisingly, given President Obama's endorsement of marriage equality, 86% of Obama supporters said they would vote Yes, while 75% of Romney supporters will vote No.

WHO SUPPORTS, WHO OPPOSES
As in other states, party identification is one of the most reliable predictors of how Mainers will vote on marriage. Eighty-one percent of Democrats said they would vote Yes, while 64% of Republicans said they would vote No.

Support for marriage equality is just as generational in Maine as in other states. Among 18-to-34-year-olds, 77% support marriage equality. Among voters over 65, half oppose it.

Education level is also predictive of support for equal marriage rights. Sixty-nine percent of Maine college graduates support equality while 56% of people with a high-school education or less are against it.

The Critical Insights poll also shows independent candidate Angus King maintaining a commanding lead in the race to succeed Republican Olympia Snowe in the U.S. Senate. Fifty percent of the respondents support King, 28% want Republican candidate Charlie Summers, and only 12% favor Democrat Cynthia Dill.

Seventy-nine percent of King's supporters back marriage equality, while 77% of Summers supporters will vote against it.

OBAMA MOVES FARTHER AHEAD
The poll also showed Obama expanding his lead in Maine, with 52% of respondents saying they will vote for the president as opposed to 36% who support Mitt Romney. Maine runs counter to the national trend, however, in that the state's higher-income voters tend to support Obama, while lower-income voters lean toward Romney.

Maine voters repealed their state's marriage equality law in a 2009 referendum. The vote was not close - 53% for repeal and 47% against. Polling throughout 2011 indicated that public opinion was shifting on the marriage issue, however, and this year Equality Maine and GLAD succeeded in putting the pro-equality initiative on the ballot.

If it passes, Maine will be one of possibly three states - along with Maryland and Washington - to pass marriage equality by popular vote.

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