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Thursday, Nov 20, 2008
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Oscar NIGHT: Who will win Sunday night? |
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| Oscar NIGHT: Who will win Sunday night? | |
| OSCAR NIGHT:
Who will win Sunday night?
by Sara Michelle Fetters -
SGN A&E Writer Now that the Writers Guild of America and their arch nemeses The Producers have finally worked out their differences and signed a contract, it looks like I can talk about this Sunday's Academy Awards with something close to a straight face. Yes, there will be Oscar, but don't think that doesn't mean there still won't be bad musical numbers (no matter how good some of the songs are), shockingly banal clip presentations (even if the ideas behind them are valid) and some remarkably gruesome comedy from both the presenters and from host John Stewart (having the just-back-from-striking writers of The Daily Show not helping in the least). In all honesty, it must be admitted that this very beguiling, self-congratulatory awfulness is why we like the Oscars so much, are so very glad to welcome them into our households once each year. So with all that in mind, the red carpet, pomp, circumstance, pageantry, and crazy-awful dresses will all thankfully return - with water cooler discussions about any and all of them surely ensuing in office buildings across America come Monday morning. For me, of course, it's the actual little golden statues themselves that matter most. I've spent the majority of my life trying to figure who is going to win and why, rooting for my own personal favorites while holding out impossible hopes that some of the lesser frontrunners will fall by the wayside (that's right, I'm talking about you, Forest Gump, A Beautiful Mind and Out of Africa, you tired and not nearly that good little usurpers, you). This year I almost feel a little sad because most of my picks mirror the ones who are probably actually going to win. That doesn't mean I still don't have my fears, and if I wake up Monday morning finding that Cate Blanchett has won Best Actress over Marion Cotillard or Julie Christie, or that "Falling Slowly" from Once has failed to take home the trophy for Best Original Song, I think I just might scream. All that said, here are my picks for who will win (and also who should win) the night's major awards. Feel free to disagree and discuss amongst yourselves. Best Adapted Screenplay THE NOMINEES: Christopher Hampton (Atonement), Sarah Polley (Away from Her), Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly), Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men), Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood) WILL WIN: Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) - This is a magnificent category, every single nominee deserving. The Coens, however, have swept just about everything, and for the life of me I just don't see that changing on Sunday. And they deserve it, too; their take on Cormac McCarthy's melancholic novel is as windswept and emotionally devastating as the source material which inspired it. SHOULD WIN: Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood) - I've been stewing on this one, and having now seen the picture for a third time I can't help but think this might be one of the most accomplished, and most complex, scripts I've come across in quite some time. Anderson has reworked Upton Sinclair's Oil! into something ethereal and disturbing, a horror tale of self destruction none who see it are likely to forget. Best Original Screenplay THE NOMINEES: Diablo Cody (Juno), Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl), Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton), Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava and Jim Capobianco (Ratatouille), Tamara Jenkins (The Savages) WILL WIN: Diablo Cody (Juno) - There is a growing backlash starting to bubble in regards to Cody and her film, a buzz building that Hollywood favorite Gilroy will win for his finely nuanced script for Michael Clayton. Don't you believe it. This former stripper is the girl of the hour, Juno the girl of the moment and her screenplay the one which will walk off into the sunset with Oscar. SHOULD WIN: Diablo Cody (Juno) - And why shouldn't it? Young female characters do not come as sharply written or as intelligent as the pregnant little MacGuff at the center of this tale. Cody's words are effervescent in their brazenly acute exactitude and a win by her would be very well-deserved. Best Supporting Actor THE NOMINEES: Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford), Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War), Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild), Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton) WILL WIN: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men) - The night's only 100-percent guarantee. Sure Holbrook has his admirers, Wilkinson his pals and Affleck his pundits, but the real superdelegate dynamo is Bardem; his depiction of pure unadulterated evil is as unnerving and frightening as any I've ever seen. SHOULD WIN: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men) - It's a masterful performance, and while part of me is silently rooting for Affleck I'd be lying if I didn't say I was firmly on the Bardem bandwagon. Best Supporting Actress THE NOMINEES: Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There), Ruby Dee (American Gangster), Saoirse Ronan (Atonement), Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone), Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) WILL WIN: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) - This is a tough one. Ryan is deserving as the sickly self-serving mother hiding a terrible secret in Ben Affleck's powerful directorial debut, but Blanchett has won almost as many awards for her unnerving channeling of a psychedelic Bob Dylan in Todd Haynes' odd musical. Both Dee and Swinton could also pull upsets here, making choosing any horse in this race an almost impossible proposition. SHOULD WIN: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) - But the actress really is heads and shoulders above them all, and if there is justice, this magnetic some-would-call newcomer (who has been working steadily in film, television and on stage since 1991) will take home the Oscar for her stirring portrait of motherhood gone horribly wrong. Best Actor THE NOMINEES: George Clooney (Michael Clayton), Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood), Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street), Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah), Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises) WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) - Maybe as much of a lock as Bardem, Day-Lewis' monstrously unnerving work in There Will Be Blood is truly a sight to behold. But not everyone digs the movie; many people (maybe justifiably) were put off by it, giving Hollywood favorites Clooney and Depp a bit of a chance for an upset. SHOULD WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) - Sorry, guys, but it's not going to happen. Day-Lewis' shocking and frightening performance is one for the time capsule, probably the best by any actor we've seen this young millennium. He should win, he deserves to win, and gosh darn it, he will win, and if his standing up on the stage at the Kodak Theater giving an acceptance speech doesn't come to pass I'll drink nothing but green grapes and Ritz cracker milkshakes for an entire week. Best Actress THE NOMINESS: Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age), Julie Christie (Away from Her), Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose), Laura Linney (The Savages), Ellen Page (Juno) WILL WIN: Julie Christie (Away from Her) - Christie has been nominated for Best Actress in four of the past five decades, her win coming in 1966 for the beautifully distressing drama Darling. She will win again for her monumental work in Sarah Polley's devastating debut, but just because I say so doesn't make it anything close to a sure thing. You can't count out either Cotillard's phenomenal work as Edith Piaf, Linney for her brutally funny work in The Savages or current it-girl Page for her magnetic ability to turn an oddly idiosyncratic independent comedy revolving around teenage pregnancy into both a critical and box office sensation. SHOULD WIN: Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose) - You have no idea how much I want her to win. What Cotillard does here goes beyond mere impersonation and travels into the realm of pure inspiration. Watching her in this musical biography is pure bliss, and next to Day-Lewis hers just might be the second best performance I saw by any actor male or female in all of last year. Best Director THE NOMINEES: Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood), Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men), Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton), Jason Reitman (Juno), Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) WILL WIN: Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) - I have this sneaky suspicion this filmmaker and painter with a penchant for wearing pajamas is going to pull the upset, his work on bringing the world of paraplegic Jean-Dominique Bauby to life too creative and monumental to easily dismiss. Here's the thing, however, if either Anderson, the Coens or Reitman win, then any mystery surrounding what the Best Picture winner will be immediately goes out the window. SHOULD WIN: Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men) - I never thought the wunderkind brothers could make a better film than Fargo, didn't think they could construct an entertainment as richly layered and unnervingly seductive. I was wrong. Their work here is profound, daring and, without question, the best of their entire careers, the elegant devastation of the coldly cognizant finale one of the finest codas I think I've quite possibly ever seen. Best Picture THE NOMINESS: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood WILL WIN: No Country for Old Men - It's the Coens' time to shine, their film going to take home the top award and validating a career of risk-taking and genre-breaking anyone who even remotely admits a love affair with the art of film can't help but stand up and applaud. No upsets, no surprises, this is their year. Goodness knows they deserve it. SHOULD WIN: No Country for Old Men - In a magnificent year for film in which so many pictures have the opportunity to go down as classics (4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, Once, Ratatouille, Into the Wild, The Bourne Ultimatum as well as fellow nominees There Will Be Blood, Atonement and Juno - if only to name a few) this might be the one towering above them all. No two ways about it, the Coens deserve the award. Here's hoping they get it. |
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